Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 19–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 92 FAI 01:03 → SEA 05:51 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1061 FAI 14:37 → SEA 19:27 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 92 Alaska	FAI 01:03	SEA 05:51	19%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 210 Alaska Flight history →	FAI 05:31	SEA 10:12	20%	4%	0.7%	83%
DL 2408 Delta Flight history →	FAI 01:35	SEA 06:16	21%	5%	1.1%	76%
AS 302 Alaska	FAI 12:03	SEA 16:47	23%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 97 Alaska	FAI 16:05	SEA 20:49	27%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 1061 Delta Flight history →	FAI 14:37	SEA 19:27	29%	7%	1.3%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON