Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1774 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 1774 FAT 05:00 → DEN 08:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 400 FAT 14:25 → DEN 17:44 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1774 United Flight history →	FAT 05:00	DEN 08:22	8%	4%	0.6%	93%
UA 5787 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 09:00	DEN 12:34	11%	7%	0.6%	91%
UA 4764 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 12:45	DEN 16:42	22%	12%	0.6%	90%worse than usual
WN 400 Southwest	FAT 14:25	DEN 17:44	36%	13%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON