Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1891 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 1891 FAT 05:15 → LAS 06:36 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G4 1705 FAT 17:08 → LAS 18:32 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1891 Southwest	FAT 05:15	LAS 06:36	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 186 Southwest	FAT 10:40	LAS 12:01	18%	6%	0.5%	no record
G4 5 Allegiant	FAT 09:34	LAS 10:58	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
G4 1715 Allegiant	FAT 22:17	LAS 23:41	34%	11%	0.8%	no record
WN 1589 Southwest	FAT 20:30	LAS 21:51	37%	13%	0.6%	no record
G4 1705 Allegiant	FAT 17:08	LAS 18:32	39%	16%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON