tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AS 3487 at 07:30, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3487 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → FAT 07:30 PDX 09:27 10% 4% 0.7% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FAT 06:00 → SLC 08:41DL 4138 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 6h 10m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → FAT 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1774 3h 05m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 8h 09m 98% 81%
AlaskaDetails → FAT 13:27 → SEA 15:43AS 384 3h 39m Seattle SEA 19:22 → PDX 20:17AS 2372 · flown by Horizon 6h 50m 97% 79%
AlaskaDetails → FAT 06:00 → SAN 07:24AS 3402 · flown by SkyWest 3h 40m San Diego SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576 7h 43m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → FAT 09:48 → SLC 12:29DL 3786 · flown by SkyWest 2h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244 6h 21m 100% 76%
AlaskaDetails → FAT 07:03 → SEA 09:22AS 3345 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m Seattle SEA 12:16 → PDX 13:15AS 488 6h 12m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → FAT 06:15 → PHX 08:01AA 6275 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m Phoenix PHX 10:53 → PDX 13:54AA 2684 7h 39m 95% 73%
UnitedDetails → FAT 06:30 → SFO 07:34UA 5338 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m San Francisco SFO 10:06 → PDX 11:58UA 2624 5h 28m 95% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → FAT 18:40 → SFO 19:44UA 5349 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m San Francisco SFO 20:50 → PDX 22:48UA 2413 4h 08m 75% 53%
AlaskaDetails → FAT 11:46 → SAN 13:15AS 3491 · flown by SkyWest 48m San Diego SAN 14:03 → PDX 16:36AS 1402 4h 50m 59% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON