Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 6275 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 6275 FAT 06:15 → PHX 08:01 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 3017 FAT 18:58 → PHX 20:51 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6275 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 06:15	PHX 08:01	13%	6%	0.8%	86%
OO 4978 SkyWest	FAT 09:46	PHX 11:39	18%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2396 American Flight history →	FAT 12:57	PHX 14:50	27%	11%	0.7%	82%
AA 668 American	FAT 16:29	PHX 18:27	35%	17%	0.8%	no record
AA 3017 American Flight history →	FAT 18:58	PHX 20:51	39%	19%	0.8%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON