Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1902 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 1902 FAT 06:15 → SAN 07:41 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3805 FAT 17:25 → SAN 18:51 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1902 Southwest	FAT 06:15	SAN 07:41	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 3402 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 06:00	SAN 07:24	17%	6%	1.0%	92%
OO 3052 SkyWest	FAT 09:57	SAN 11:26	27%	12%	0.9%	no record
AS 3491 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 11:46	SAN 13:15	29%	14%	1.0%	74%
OO 3021 SkyWest	FAT 19:12	SAN 20:41	33%	15%	1.4%	no record
WN 3805 Southwest	FAT 17:25	SAN 18:51	38%	13%	0.6%	no record
AS 2210 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	FAT 10:42	SAN 11:58	53%	12%	1.9%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON