Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 3345 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–40%.

Safest bet that day AS 3345 FAT 07:03 → SEA 09:22 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest AS 394 FAT 19:27 → SEA 21:39 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3345 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 07:03	SEA 09:22	18%	6%	0.7%	74%
AS 384 Alaska Flight history →	FAT 13:27	SEA 15:43	25%	4%	1.1%	86%worse than usual
AS 9802 Alaska	FAT 15:06	SEA 17:14	29%	7%	1.1%	no record
AS 394 Alaska	FAT 19:27	SEA 21:39	40%	8%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON