Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5338 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31–37%.

Safest bet that day UA 5338 FAT 06:30 → SFO 07:34 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest UA 5737 FAT 10:21 → SFO 11:25 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5338 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 06:30	SFO 07:34	16%	8%	0.7%	82%
UA 5349 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 18:40	SFO 19:44	31%	19%	0.7%	58%
OO 5647 SkyWest	FAT 12:09	SFO 13:37	32%	16%	0.7%	no record
UA 5737 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 10:21	SFO 11:25	37%	23%	0.7%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON