Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 4138 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 4138 FAT 06:00 → SLC 08:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 3777 FAT 17:13 → SLC 19:58 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4138 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 06:00	SLC 08:41	6%	4%	0.7%	96%
DL 3786 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 09:48	SLC 12:29	9%	5%	0.7%	97%
DL 3768 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 12:35	SLC 15:21	11%	6%	0.8%	93%
DL 3777 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FAT 17:13	SLC 19:58	21%	9%	1.6%	93%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON