Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 06:33, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Kalispell). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	FCA 06:33 → SEA 07:05AS 2122 · flown by Horizon	1h 30m Seattle	SEA 08:35 → MSP 13:57AS 555	6h 24m	97%	81%
Alaska Details →	FCA 16:34 → SEA 17:12AS 2110 · flown by Horizon	1h 28m Seattle	SEA 18:40 → MSP 23:55AS 527	6h 21m	96%	71%
Alaska Details →	FCA 11:28 → SEA 12:05AS 2207 · flown by Horizon	1h 23m Seattle	SEA 13:28 → MSP 18:36AS 509	6h 08m	92%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON