Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Portland, leaving 13:10, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Kalispell). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	FCA 13:10 → PDX 13:49AS 2283 · flown by Horizon	3h 57m Portland	PDX 17:46 → SFO 19:39AS 1393	7h 29m	100%	73%
Alaska Details →	FCA 11:28 → SEA 12:05AS 2207 · flown by Horizon	3h 39m Seattle	SEA 15:44 → SFO 17:52AS 680	7h 24m	100%	60%
Alaska Details →	FCA 14:10 → SAN 16:16AS 2187 · flown by Horizon	3h 41m San Diego	SAN 19:57 → SFO 21:38AS 3463 · flown by SkyWest	8h 28m	100%	57%
Alaska Details →	FCA 06:33 → SEA 07:05AS 2122 · flown by Horizon	1h 48m Seattle	SEA 08:53 → SFO 11:09AS 528	5h 36m	97%	56%
Alaska Details →	FCA 16:34 → SEA 17:12AS 2110 · flown by Horizon	3h 30m Seattle	SEA 20:42 → SFO 22:55AS 590	7h 21m	100%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON