Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via San Diego, leaving 14:10, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	FCA 14:10 → SAN 16:16AS 2187 · flown by Horizon	2h 33m San Diego	SAN 18:49 → SLC 21:57AS 3017 · flown by SkyWest	7h 47m	100%	70%
Alaska Details →	FCA 11:28 → SEA 12:05AS 2207 · flown by Horizon	2h 37m Seattle	SEA 14:42 → SLC 17:43AS 663	6h 15m	97%	59%
Alaska Details →	FCA 16:34 → SEA 17:12AS 2110 · flown by Horizon	3h 33m Seattle	SEA 20:45 → SLC 23:48AS 669	7h 14m	100%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON