Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1896 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 1896 FLL 08:00 → BNA 09:24 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G4 2127 FLL 11:46 → BNA 13:10 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1896 Southwest	FLL 08:00	BNA 09:24	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4835 Southwest	FLL 10:20	BNA 11:43	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1919 Southwest	FLL 14:36	BNA 15:59	27%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 1911 Southwest	FLL 20:57	BNA 22:19	31%	10%	1.3%	no record
B6 2581 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	BNA 22:22	36%	19%	2.8%	48%
WN 662 Southwest	FLL 17:25	BNA 18:49	36%	14%	1.3%	no record
B6 681 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:05	BNA 13:32	37%	17%	2.3%	57%
G4 2127 Allegiant	FLL 11:46	BNA 13:10	40%	16%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON