Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via Charlotte, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Buffalo on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 866 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:54	BUF 23:03	32%	14%	1.7%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:12DL 1168	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384	5h 48m	98%	85%
JetBlue Details →	FLL 06:00 → BOS 09:14B6 690	2h 48m Boston	BOS 12:02 → BUF 13:49B6 915	7h 49m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	FLL 07:06 → JFK 10:00DL 2165	3h 29m New York	JFK 13:29 → BUF 15:09DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor	8h 03m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	FLL 16:40 → DTW 19:46DL 1294	3h 04m Detroit	DTW 22:50 → BUF 23:58DL 978	7h 18m	97%	76%
JetBlue Details →	FLL 07:01 → JFK 10:00B6 302	3h 29m New York	JFK 13:29 → BUF 14:59B6 2902	7h 58m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266	6h 07m	98%	76%
American Details →	FLL 06:55 → PHL 09:53AA 2089	2h 57m Philadelphia	PHL 12:50 → BUF 14:19AA 6041 · flown by Piedmont	7h 24m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	FLL 11:29 → LGA 14:24DL 2465	1h 51m New York	LGA 16:15 → BUF 17:44DL 5792 · flown by Republic	6h 15m	93%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	FLL 15:13 → DFW 17:27AA 1390	1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:45 → BUF 22:50AA 574	7h 37m	73%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON