Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2631 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 2631 FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2008 FLL 20:24 → DTW 23:34 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2631 Delta Flight history →	FLL 06:00	DTW 08:56	5%	2%	0.9%	92%
DL 1294 Delta Flight history →	FLL 16:40	DTW 19:46	20%	9%	1.0%	70%
DL 1037 Delta Flight history →	FLL 20:10	DTW 23:18	22%	8%	1.2%	64%
DL 655 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:27	DTW 14:26	26%	7%	2.1%	83%
B6 790 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:00	DTW 15:10	28%	11%	1.7%	77%
B6 2290 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:20	DTW 23:26	31%	11%	1.6%	73%
F9 2008 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 20:24	DTW 23:34	35%	12%	2.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON