Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: B6 707 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39–40%.

Safest bet that day B6 707 FLL 07:55 → LAS 10:14 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 507 FLL 15:03 → LAS 17:23 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 707 JetBlue	FLL 07:55	LAS 10:14	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
B6 607 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:27	LAS 22:32	39%	15%	1.8%	70%
B6 507 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 15:03	LAS 17:23	40%	17%	1.0%	90%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:12DL 1168	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777	7h 08m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215	1h 28m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	7h 27m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	FLL 07:40 → ATL 09:33DL 1326	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	7h 22m	92%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON