Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2133 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–45%.

Safest bet that day DL 2133 FLL 07:00 → LGA 10:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 672 FLL 18:38 → LGA 21:37 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2133 Delta Flight history →	FLL 07:00	LGA 10:00	6%	3%	1.3%	94%
B6 172 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:10	LGA 09:08	10%	4%	1.2%	83%
B6 872 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 09:43	LGA 12:45	19%	7%	1.4%	74%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history →	FLL 19:33	LGA 22:26	25%	8%	1.7%	62%
DL 1181 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:05	LGA 18:19	26%	11%	1.6%	68%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history →	FLL 11:29	LGA 14:24	27%	11%	3.0%	70%
AA 1135 American	FLL 12:11	LGA 15:17	29%	11%	2.8%	no record
AA 2968 American	FLL 17:36	LGA 20:41	37%	14%	2.5%	no record
B6 272 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:52	LGA 14:45	40%	18%	2.8%	58%
B6 472 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 16:51	LGA 19:50	43%	17%	1.8%	74%worse than usual
B6 572 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:00	LGA 22:59	44%	17%	2.0%	55%
B6 672 JetBlue	FLL 18:38	LGA 21:37	45%	17%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON