Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1924 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 1924 FLL 06:15 → MCO 07:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1948 FLL 20:59 → MCO 22:09 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1924 Southwest	FLL 06:15	MCO 07:25	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
B6 2548 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 10:00	MCO 11:08	23%	8%	1.0%	76%
WN 4165 Southwest	FLL 19:00	MCO 20:09	33%	10%	2.1%	no record
B6 1948 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	MCO 22:09	42%	22%	2.0%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON