tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:23, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:12DL 1168 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 8h 15m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → FLL 08:20 → SEA 11:49DL 356 2h 41m Seattle SEA 14:30 → ONT 17:21DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest 12h 01m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:19 → PHX 08:21AA 441 2h 19m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → ONT 12:06AA 2661 8h 47m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → FLL 08:00 → DEN 10:21UA 1311 1h 04m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 47m 92% 75%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:27 → DFW 09:38AA 1712 2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:14 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 9h 05m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 22m 98% 63%
JetBlueDetails → FLL 11:13 → JFK 14:15B6 2102 3h 24m New York JFK 17:39 → ONT 20:37B6 355 12h 24m 96% 62%
DeltaDetails → FLL 14:30 → ATL 16:34DL 2063 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 20:25 → ONT 21:50DL 779 10h 20m 97% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → FLL 16:38 → DFW 19:00AA 638 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:59 → ONT 21:12AA 2147 7h 34m 66% 35%
UnitedDetails → FLL 15:30 → DEN 18:18UA 1417 1h 02m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 8h 12m 63% 33%
UnitedDetails → FLL 16:20 → ORD 19:00UA 403 1h 18m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 9h 31m 71% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON