tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:23, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 441 American Flight history → FLL 06:19 PHX 08:21 13% 4% 0.8% 64%
AA 1222 American FLL 17:46 PHX 19:48 32% 13% 1.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 3h 51m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 10h 50m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:12DL 1168 58m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348 6h 38m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 30m 97% 78%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:55 → PHL 09:53AA 2089 55m Philadelphia PHL 10:48 → PHX 12:47AA 478 8h 52m 92% 76%
DeltaDetails → FLL 08:20 → SEA 11:49DL 356 1h 41m Seattle SEA 13:30 → PHX 16:41DL 2442 11h 21m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 13:35 → PHX 14:18DL 366 7h 22m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:00 → CLT 07:59AA 1474 1h 42m Charlotte CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986 8h 04m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → FLL 09:00 → IAH 10:45UA 722 3h 28m Houston IAH 14:13 → PHX 15:03UA 1798 9h 03m 99% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → FLL 17:00 → IAH 18:56UA 1696 57m Houston IAH 19:53 → PHX 20:42UA 2078 6h 42m 70% 49%
DeltaDetails → FLL 18:40 → SLC 21:38DL 745 1h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496 7h 51m 70% 49%
AmericanDetails → FLL 13:32 → ORD 15:58AA 1443 1h 15m Chicago ORD 17:13 → PHX 19:15AA 3137 8h 43m 73% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON