tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, B6 1196 at 20:31, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1196 JetBlue Flight history → FLL 20:31 PVD 23:42 34% 11% 1.5% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:12DL 1168 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29DL 2147 7h 06m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 1h 27m Detroit DTW 10:23 → PVD 12:19DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest 6h 19m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314 6h 33m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → FLL 15:44 → ATL 17:54DL 1341 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 21:27 → PVD 23:57DL 2064 8h 13m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:00 → CLT 07:59AA 1474 3h 01m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → PVD 13:07AA 1877 7h 07m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → FLL 12:08 → ATL 14:00DL 1271 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659 8h 01m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → FLL 07:44 → CLT 09:53AA 2087 3h 50m Charlotte CLT 13:43 → PVD 15:50AA 2679 8h 06m 97% 76%
JetBlueDetails → FLL 10:00 → MCO 11:08B6 2548 2h 55m Orlando MCO 14:03 → PVD 16:58B6 1075 6h 58m 96% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → FLL 14:30 → ATL 16:34DL 2063 1h 06m Atlanta ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659 5h 39m 75% 59%
DeltaDetails → FLL 18:28 → ATL 20:35DL 2345 52m Atlanta ATL 21:27 → PVD 23:57DL 2064 5h 29m 61% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON