Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: B6 1626 at 07:59 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–38%.

Safest bet that day B6 1626 FLL 07:59 → RDU 10:19 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 421 FLL 17:45 → RDU 20:01 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1626 JetBlue	FLL 07:59	RDU 10:19	14%	7%	1.0%	no record
DL 1018 Delta Flight history →	FLL 15:00	RDU 17:12	25%	9%	1.4%	75%
F9 2178 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 11:39	RDU 14:01	37%	17%	3.6%	71%
B6 2626 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:25	RDU 21:34	37%	17%	1.5%	61%
WN 421 Southwest	FLL 17:45	RDU 20:01	38%	16%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON