tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3248 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3248 Southwest FLL 05:55 STL 07:49 5% 2% 0.8% no record
WN 1933 Southwest FLL 19:10 STL 21:05 35% 9% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Fort Lauderdale). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:00 → DTW 08:56DL 2631 3h 32m Detroit DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371 8h 05m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → FLL 05:23 → ATL 07:12DL 1168 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400 5h 20m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → FLL 06:33 → ATL 08:27DL 1215 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 44m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → FLL 09:56 → ATL 11:48DL 1334 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 15:16 → STL 16:06DL 543 7h 10m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → FLL 07:00 → IAH 08:45UA 2314 3h 10m Houston IAH 11:55 → STL 14:01UA 2042 8h 01m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → FLL 06:00 → CLT 07:59AA 1474 3h 01m Charlotte CLT 11:00 → STL 12:05AA 3096 7h 05m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → FLL 11:27 → DTW 14:26DL 655 2h 19m Detroit DTW 16:45 → STL 17:24DL 2822 6h 57m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → FLL 13:28 → ATL 15:32DL 1512 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 19:14 → STL 20:04DL 2833 7h 36m 99% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → FLL 12:26 → ORD 14:55UA 1755 1h 04m Chicago ORD 15:59 → STL 17:27UA 4416 · flown by GoJet 6h 01m 71% 42%
AmericanDetails → FLL 16:38 → DFW 19:00AA 638 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:55 → STL 21:48AA 1010 6h 10m 61% 33%
UnitedDetails → FLL 16:20 → ORD 19:00UA 403 52m Chicago ORD 19:52 → STL 21:11UA 8125 5h 51m 43% 20%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON