Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: MX 707 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–35%.

Safest bet that day MX 707 FLL 06:04 → TPA 07:17 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1905 FLL 19:45 → TPA 20:57 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MX 707 Breeze	FLL 06:04	TPA 07:17	10%	3%	2.1%	no record
WN 1363 Southwest	FLL 10:00	TPA 11:11	13%	4%	0.9%	no record
MX 2422 Breeze	FLL 14:43	TPA 15:56	30%	11%	1.9%	no record
B6 1005 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 13:23	TPA 14:34	34%	18%	2.2%	62%
B6 1905 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 19:45	TPA 20:57	35%	18%	1.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON