Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 1237 at 05:20, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1237 Delta Flight history →	FSD 05:20	ATL 08:53	9%	4%	0.8%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 1 h ahead of Sioux Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	FSD 06:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5701 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m Denver	DEN 10:11 → ATL 15:23UA 2806	8h 23m	98%	80%
United Details →	FSD 07:35 → ORD 09:31UA 1857	2h 25m Chicago	ORD 11:56 → ATL 15:07UA 2779	6h 32m	98%	76%
American Details →	FSD 06:55 → ORD 08:41AA 4977 · flown by SkyWest	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 10:06 → ATL 13:21AA 2910	5h 26m	95%	69%
United Details →	FSD 11:35 → DEN 12:25UA 5319 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Denver	DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671	5h 55m	87%	60%
United Details →	FSD 13:18 → DEN 14:10UA 5492 · flown by SkyWest	3h 58m Denver	DEN 18:08 → ATL 23:14UA 248	8h 56m	98%	58%
American Details →	FSD 12:49 → DFW 15:02AA 2872	2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:38 → ATL 20:56AA 3212	7h 07m	92%	49%
American Details →	FSD 17:51 → DFW 20:21AA 3820 · flown by Envoy	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → ATL 00:19 +1AA 2749	5h 28m	76%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON