Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5701 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 5701 FSD 06:00 → DEN 06:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest OO 5296 FSD 18:48 → DEN 19:31 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5701 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 06:00	DEN 06:53	7%	4%	1.0%	91%
UA 5319 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 11:35	DEN 12:25	14%	7%	0.9%	87%
UA 5492 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 13:18	DEN 14:10	15%	10%	1.1%	92%
UA 1849 United	FSD 09:34	DEN 10:19	18%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 5848 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 17:05	DEN 18:13	33%	13%	2.1%	68%
OO 5296 SkyWest	FSD 18:48	DEN 19:31	34%	12%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON