Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1012 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1012 FSD 06:00 → DFW 08:13 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2872 FSD 12:49 → DFW 15:02 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1012 American	FSD 06:00	DFW 08:13	13%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 3820 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	FSD 17:51	DFW 20:20	20%	7%	3.6%	82%
AA 2872 American Flight history →	FSD 12:49	DFW 15:02	24%	9%	1.4%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON