Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1435 at 08:22 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1435 FSD 08:22 → MSP 09:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3890 FSD 16:26 → MSP 17:34 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1435 Delta	FSD 08:22	MSP 09:27	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3917 SkyWest	FSD 05:00	MSP 06:08	7%	3%	0.8%	no record
OO 3888 SkyWest	FSD 11:00	MSP 12:08	9%	4%	0.8%	no record
OO 3763 SkyWest	FSD 13:03	MSP 14:11	11%	5%	1.1%	no record
OO 3890 SkyWest	FSD 16:26	MSP 17:34	18%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON