Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 4977 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 48%.

Safest bet that day AA 4977 FSD 06:55 → ORD 08:41 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest OO 4992 FSD 18:41 → ORD 20:27 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4977 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	FSD 06:55	ORD 08:41	10%	6%	1.7%	84%
UA 1857 United Flight history →	FSD 07:35	ORD 09:31	17%	7%	1.4%	80%
G7 4422 GoJet	FSD 11:10	ORD 12:56	23%	7%	3.6%	no record
OO 4991 SkyWest	FSD 12:00	ORD 13:46	32%	16%	3.2%	no record
OO 5320 SkyWest	FSD 15:05	ORD 16:51	45%	22%	5.6%	no record
OO 5353 SkyWest	FSD 18:34	ORD 20:20	48%	25%	9.5%	no record
OO 4992 SkyWest	FSD 18:41	ORD 20:27	48%	24%	10.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON