tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 6442 SkyWest FSD 08:13 PHX 09:05 12% 6% 0.7% no record
OO 4966 SkyWest FSD 14:20 PHX 15:25 20% 10% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Sioux Falls). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → FSD 06:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5701 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m Denver DEN 09:57 → PHX 11:04UA 1782 7h 04m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → FSD 05:20 → ATL 08:53DL 1237 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 43m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → FSD 11:35 → DEN 12:25UA 5319 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 7h 00m 97% 66%
UnitedDetails → FSD 07:35 → ORD 09:31UA 1857 2h 42m Chicago ORD 12:13 → PHX 13:55UA 2164 8h 20m 99% 64%
AmericanDetails → FSD 06:55 → ORD 08:41AA 4977 · flown by SkyWest 1h 55m Chicago ORD 10:36 → PHX 12:28AA 2192 7h 33m 97% 63%
UnitedDetails → FSD 17:05 → DEN 18:13UA 5848 · flown by SkyWest 2h 44m Denver DEN 20:57 → PHX 21:57UA 1194 6h 52m 94% 55%
AmericanDetails → FSD 12:49 → DFW 15:02AA 2872 1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:38 → PHX 17:20AA 1232 6h 31m 85% 55%
AmericanDetails → FSD 17:51 → DFW 20:21AA 3820 · flown by Envoy 2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:59 → PHX 23:36AA 1931 7h 45m 97% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON