Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3044 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 3044 GEG 06:25 → DEN 09:39 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 928 GEG 14:50 → DEN 18:06 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3044 Southwest	GEG 06:25	DEN 09:39	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1234 United Flight history →	GEG 05:00	DEN 08:20	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
OO 5587 SkyWest	GEG 16:10	DEN 19:31	22%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 1255 United Flight history →	GEG 13:41	DEN 16:55	26%	8%	0.7%	80%
WN 928 Southwest	GEG 14:50	DEN 18:06	31%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON