Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AA 484 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 484 American Flight history →	GEG 05:16	DFW 10:55	10%	3%	1.0%	91%
AA 1381 American Flight history →	GEG 12:52	DFW 18:31	30%	7%	0.9%	59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Spokane). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710	50m Portland	PDX 07:00 → DFW 12:43AS 539	5h 43m	91%	80%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	1h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:50 → DFW 13:30DL 2800	6h 10m	97%	80%
United Details →	GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234	1h 12m Denver	DEN 09:32 → DFW 12:31UA 1350	5h 31m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	GEG 07:00 → MSP 11:52DL 1615	2h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 14:47 → DFW 17:16DL 2971	8h 16m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	2h 29m Seattle	SEA 08:44 → DFW 14:35AS 321	7h 28m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218	2h 35m Seattle	SEA 09:15 → DFW 15:13DL 803	7h 48m	95%	72%
American Details →	GEG 06:25 → PHX 09:10AA 2697	1h 21m Phoenix	PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284	6h 45m	95%	70%
Alaska Details →	GEG 13:36 → SEA 14:46AS 455	3h 12m Seattle	SEA 17:58 → DFW 23:48AS 542	8h 12m	100%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	GEG 14:27 → ORD 20:19AA 677	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → DFW 23:48AA 2281	7h 21m	54%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON