tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 3696 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 06:20 LAX 09:13 9% 3% 0.6% 93%
DL 3794 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 16:13 LAX 18:59 15% 4% 0.6% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → GEG 13:57 → BOI 16:17AS 3219 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m Boise BOI 18:51 → LAX 20:10AS 2180 · flown by Horizon 6h 13m 98% 98%
UnitedDetails → GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234 1h 42m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 34m 97% 80%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 50m Portland PDX 07:00 → LAX 09:37AS 581 4h 37m 91% 80%
DeltaDetails → GEG 07:00 → MSP 11:52DL 1615 1h 18m Minneapolis MSP 13:10 → LAX 15:04DL 2974 8h 04m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 3h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829 7h 07m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218 3h 25m Seattle SEA 10:05 → LAX 12:55DL 2769 7h 30m 95% 77%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251 3h 45m Portland PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:09AS 278 7h 27m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → GEG 06:25 → PHX 09:10AA 2697 1h 34m Phoenix PHX 10:44 → LAX 12:14AA 2027 5h 49m 96% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → GEG 11:40 → SEA 12:50AS 2262 · flown by Horizon 48m Seattle SEA 13:38 → LAX 16:25AS 696 4h 45m 70% 48%
UnitedDetails → GEG 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1255 55m Denver DEN 17:50 → LAX 19:27UA 1753 5h 46m 69% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON