Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1615 Delta Flight history →	GEG 07:00	MSP 11:52	9%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 2437 Delta Flight history →	GEG 14:26	MSP 19:15	16%	3%	0.7%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Spokane). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234	1h 20m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	5h 40m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	3h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	7h 20m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	GEG 09:27 → SEA 10:55DL 3830 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → MSP 19:54DL 942	8h 27m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503	3h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:16 → MSP 02:48 +1DL 8847	7h 38m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	GEG 06:20 → LAX 09:13DL 3696 · flown by SkyWest	2h 02m Los Angeles	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	8h 30m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	3h 40m Seattle	SEA 18:05 → MSP 23:30DL 949	8h 30m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	GEG 07:00 → SEA 08:22DL 3790 · flown by SkyWest	3h 50m Seattle	SEA 12:12 → MSP 17:28DL 536	8h 28m	96%	78%
Alaska Details →	GEG 13:35 → SEA 14:44AS 455	3h 55m Seattle	SEA 18:39 → MSP 23:53AS 527	8h 18m	100%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON