Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3683 at 14:05, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3683 Southwest	GEG 14:05	OAK 16:19	15%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251	3h 41m Portland	PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon	6h 41m	100%	97%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	2h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	6h 26m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503	2h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 40m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	2h 54m Seattle	SEA 09:09 → OAK 11:15AS 533	6h 08m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	GEG 11:40 → SEA 12:50AS 2262 · flown by Horizon	3h 55m Seattle	SEA 16:45 → OAK 18:53AS 1328	7h 13m	100%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	GEG 14:39 → SEA 15:49AS 2119 · flown by Horizon	56m Seattle	SEA 16:45 → OAK 18:53AS 1328	4h 14m	61%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON