Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 14:26, is the safest bet: 48% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5623 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 11:09	ORD 17:00	33%	14%	2.2%	67%
AA 677 American Flight history →	GEG 14:27	ORD 20:19	52%	17%	1.2%	53%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Spokane). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	6h 15m	96%	75%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710	50m Portland	PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13AS 324	6h 13m	91%	74%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 08:34 → ORD 14:46AS 265	7h 39m	100%	72%
United Details →	GEG 12:37 → SFO 15:01UA 5217 · flown by SkyWest	3h 48m San Francisco	SFO 18:49 → ORD 00:59 +1UA 1958	10h 22m	97%	69%
Alaska Details →	GEG 19:46 → SEA 20:55AS 319	2h 46m Seattle	SEA 23:41 → ORD 05:41 +1AS 285	7h 55m	100%	68%
Delta Details →	GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108	8h 38m	99%	66%
Alaska Details →	GEG 13:36 → SEA 14:46AS 455	3h 02m Seattle	SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538	8h 23m	100%	65%
American Details →	GEG 14:00 → PHX 16:52AA 540	2h 01m Phoenix	PHX 18:53 → ORD 00:31 +1AA 2201	8h 31m	91%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	GEG 13:41 → DEN 16:55UA 1255	55m Denver	DEN 17:50 → ORD 21:31UA 1411	5h 50m	69%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON