Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 710 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day AS 710 GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest OO 3406 GEG 19:34 → PDX 20:57 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 710 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 05:00	PDX 06:10	4%	1%	0.9%	97%
AS 661 Alaska	GEG 08:24	PDX 09:42	8%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 251 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 12:42	PDX 13:52	11%	2%	0.9%	87%
AS 633 Alaska	GEG 15:37	PDX 16:55	12%	3%	1.0%	no record
OO 3406 SkyWest	GEG 19:34	PDX 20:57	22%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 2407 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 19:41	PDX 20:50	22%	6%	1.4%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON