Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4109 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4109 GEG 05:25 → PHX 08:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 540 GEG 14:00 → PHX 16:52 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4109 Southwest	GEG 05:25	PHX 08:05	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 2697 American Flight history →	GEG 06:25	PHX 09:10	11%	4%	0.8%	87%
WN 3067 Southwest	GEG 18:20	PHX 21:03	20%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 540 American Flight history →	GEG 14:00	PHX 16:52	25%	7%	0.6%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON