Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 673 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 08:15	SAN 11:03	16%	3%	0.8%	90%
WN 1265 Southwest	GEG 11:05	SAN 13:57	24%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	GEG 07:00 → SEA 08:22DL 3790 · flown by SkyWest	3h 52m Seattle	SEA 12:14 → SAN 15:16DL 2572	8h 16m	97%	76%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710	2h 53m Portland	PDX 09:03 → SAN 11:38AS 721	6h 38m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	3h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	6h 48m	98%	73%
United Details →	GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234	2h 55m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	7h 41m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	GEG 11:30 → SEA 12:54DL 3824 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Seattle	SEA 15:15 → SAN 18:05DL 2613	6h 35m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218	3h 05m Seattle	SEA 09:45 → SAN 12:39DL 2533	7h 14m	95%	71%
Delta Details →	GEG 14:26 → MSP 19:15DL 2437	2h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 21:47 → SAN 23:30DL 2146	9h 04m	96%	70%
Delta Details →	GEG 16:13 → LAX 18:59DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest	3h 46m Los Angeles	LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest	7h 29m	97%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest	50m Seattle	SEA 15:15 → SAN 18:05DL 2613	5h 05m	74%	55%
Alaska Details →	GEG 14:39 → SEA 15:49AS 2119 · flown by Horizon	1h 05m Seattle	SEA 16:54 → SAN 19:42AS 791	5h 03m	70%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON