Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2218 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 2218 GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 319 GEG 19:46 → SEA 20:55 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2218 Delta Flight history →	GEG 05:25	SEA 06:40	8%	3%	0.8%	95%
DL 3790 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 07:00	SEA 08:22	13%	4%	0.7%	92%
AS 221 Alaska	GEG 06:05	SEA 07:12	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
OO 3316 SkyWest	GEG 10:29	SEA 11:46	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 3824 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 11:30	SEA 12:54	16%	5%	0.8%	90%
OO 3129 SkyWest	GEG 08:25	SEA 09:42	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 3754 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 13:00	SEA 14:25	18%	5%	0.9%	84%
DL 3857 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 17:37	SEA 19:01	21%	6%	0.9%	93%worse than usual
AS 360 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 07:15	SEA 08:24	21%	3%	0.9%	91%worse than usual
OO 3816 SkyWest	GEG 09:31	SEA 10:48	22%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 156 SkyWest	GEG 09:19	SEA 10:36	23%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 3832 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GEG 19:59	SEA 21:22	23%	7%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
OO 3221 SkyWest	GEG 17:45	SEA 19:02	25%	7%	0.9%	no record
AS 726 Alaska	GEG 12:42	SEA 13:51	27%	4%	1.0%	no record
AS 423 Alaska	GEG 16:42	SEA 17:51	31%	7%	1.1%	no record
AS 455 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 13:36	SEA 14:46	34%	5%	1.0%	83%worse than usual
AS 319 Alaska Flight history →	GEG 19:46	SEA 20:55	42%	8%	1.0%	88%worse than usual
AS 2065 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 05:07	SEA 06:15	4%	0%	0.0%	96%
AS 2262 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 11:40	SEA 12:50	8%	2%	3.8%	92%
AS 2069 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 09:06	SEA 10:18	21%	3%	0.9%	79%
AS 2119 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 14:39	SEA 15:49	35%	8%	0.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON