tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 5471 SkyWest GEG 06:06 SFO 08:48 14% 6% 0.6% no record
UA 5217 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → GEG 12:37 SFO 15:01 24% 10% 0.6% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GEG 17:37 → SEA 19:01DL 3857 · flown by SkyWest 2h 38m Seattle SEA 21:39 → SFO 23:59DL 2635 6h 22m 100% 75%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251 3h 54m Portland PDX 17:46 → SFO 19:39AS 1393 6h 57m 100% 73%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710 1h 09m Portland PDX 07:19 → SFO 09:16AS 526 4h 16m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 2h 58m Salt Lake City SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902 6h 43m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218 3h 05m Seattle SEA 09:45 → SFO 12:04DL 1412 6h 39m 95% 69%
UnitedDetails → GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234 1h 23m Denver DEN 09:43 → SFO 11:25UA 1506 6h 25m 96% 69%
DeltaDetails → GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → SFO 23:52DL 1091 6h 42m 98% 67%
DeltaDetails → GEG 11:30 → SEA 12:54DL 3824 · flown by SkyWest 1h 36m Seattle SEA 14:30 → SFO 16:49DL 3707 · flown by SkyWest 5h 19m 93% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → GEG 15:35 → SNA 18:19AS 2019 · flown by Horizon 1h 12m Santa Ana SNA 19:31 → SFO 21:15AS 736 5h 40m 55% 37%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 13:36 → SEA 14:46AS 455 58m Seattle SEA 15:44 → SFO 17:52AS 680 4h 16m 61% 36%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 14:39 → SEA 15:49AS 2119 · flown by Horizon 47m Seattle SEA 16:36 → SFO 18:48AS 1385 4h 09m 48% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON