Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 1591 at 10:50, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1591 Southwest	GEG 10:50	SJC 13:19	8%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710	1h 05m Portland	PDX 07:15 → SJC 09:09AS 2080 · flown by Horizon	4h 09m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 08:30 → SJC 10:55DL 3736 · flown by SkyWest	5h 30m	95%	83%
Alaska Details →	GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251	3h 58m Portland	PDX 17:50 → SJC 19:47AS 345	7h 05m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	GEG 06:20 → LAX 09:13DL 3696 · flown by SkyWest	3h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	7h 52m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	59m Seattle	SEA 07:14 → SJC 09:23AS 1341	4h 16m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440	3h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:50 → SJC 12:45DL 1254	7h 25m	98%	80%
American Details →	GEG 06:25 → PHX 09:10AA 2697	1h 08m Phoenix	PHX 10:18 → SJC 12:24AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	5h 59m	93%	79%
United Details →	GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234	3h 01m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SJC 13:08UA 1256	8h 08m	98%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	GEG 13:36 → SEA 14:46AS 455	1h 02m Seattle	SEA 15:48 → SJC 18:00AS 657	4h 24m	68%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON