Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 3801 at 09:59 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–23%.

Safest bet that day OO 3801 GEG 09:59 → SLC 13:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1503 GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3801 SkyWest	GEG 09:59	SLC 13:00	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 1440 Delta Flight history →	GEG 05:20	SLC 08:02	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 1452 Delta Flight history →	GEG 13:30	SLC 16:14	16%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 1219 Delta	GEG 18:51	SLC 21:36	21%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 1503 Delta Flight history →	GEG 17:10	SLC 19:55	23%	5%	1.2%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON