tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1942 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1942 Southwest GEG 05:00 SMF 07:03 3% 1% 0.5% no record
WN 1943 Southwest GEG 19:50 SMF 21:53 25% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251 3h 56m Portland PDX 17:48 → SMF 19:29AS 793 6h 47m 100% 82%
AlaskaDetails → GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon 2h 02m Seattle SEA 08:17 → SMF 10:10AS 677 5h 03m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:20 → SLC 08:02DL 1440 3h 33m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 56m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → GEG 05:25 → SEA 06:40DL 2218 3h 30m Seattle SEA 10:10 → SMF 12:17DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest 6h 52m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → GEG 16:13 → LAX 18:59DL 3794 · flown by SkyWest 2h 36m Los Angeles LAX 21:35 → SMF 23:07DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest 6h 54m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → GEG 17:10 → SLC 19:55DL 1503 3h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582 6h 34m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → GEG 13:00 → SEA 14:25DL 3754 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m Seattle SEA 17:00 → SMF 18:57DL 4043 · flown by SkyWest 5h 57m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → GEG 11:30 → SEA 12:54DL 3824 · flown by SkyWest 1h 46m Seattle SEA 14:40 → SMF 16:39DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest 5h 09m 94% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → GEG 19:46 → SEA 20:55AS 319 1h 01m Seattle SEA 21:56 → SMF 23:50AS 722 4h 04m 58% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON