Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 2019 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	GEG 15:35	SNA 18:19	54%	15%	0.0%	46%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	GEG 05:00 → PDX 06:10AS 710	50m Portland	PDX 07:00 → SNA 09:37AS 1404	4h 37m	91%	82%
Alaska Details →	GEG 12:42 → PDX 13:52AS 251	3h 40m Portland	PDX 17:32 → SNA 20:05AS 574	7h 23m	100%	82%
Alaska Details →	GEG 05:07 → SEA 06:15AS 2065 · flown by Horizon	2h 03m Seattle	SEA 08:18 → SNA 11:15AS 759	6h 08m	100%	78%
United Details →	GEG 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 1234	3h 00m Denver	DEN 11:20 → SNA 12:51UA 1320	7h 51m	98%	77%
Alaska Details →	GEG 14:39 → SEA 15:49AS 2119 · flown by Horizon	3h 06m Seattle	SEA 18:55 → SNA 21:46AS 631	7h 07m	97%	74%
Alaska Details →	GEG 13:36 → SEA 14:46AS 455	3h 13m Seattle	SEA 17:59 → SNA 20:45AS 671	7h 09m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	GEG 07:15 → SEA 08:24AS 360	2h 42m Seattle	SEA 11:06 → SNA 13:55AS 1357	6h 40m	99%	73%
Alaska Details →	GEG 06:00 → BOI 08:07AS 2198 · flown by Horizon	2h 45m Boise	BOI 10:52 → SNA 12:17AS 233	6h 17m	96%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	GEG 09:06 → SEA 10:18AS 2069 · flown by Horizon	48m Seattle	SEA 11:06 → SNA 13:55AS 1357	4h 49m	55%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON