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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 4800 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 4800 GJT 05:30 → DEN 07:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 4635 GJT 15:15 → DEN 16:45 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 4800 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → GJT 05:30 DEN 07:00 9% 6% 0.8% 86%
UA 1877 United Flight history → GJT 07:00 DEN 08:22 10% 5% 0.9% 86%
UA 4709 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → GJT 11:19 DEN 12:45 17% 10% 0.9% 84%
OO 4773 SkyWest GJT 09:26 DEN 10:37 20% 9% 0.9% no record
UA 1788 United Flight history → GJT 13:33 DEN 14:55 25% 10% 0.8% 83%
UA 5755 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → GJT 18:10 DEN 19:39 33% 17% 1.4% 65%
UA 4635 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → GJT 15:15 DEN 16:45 41% 22% 1.4% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON