Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 6414 at 06:26 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 6414 GJT 06:26 → DFW 09:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest MQ 4001 GJT 17:13 → DFW 20:29 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6414 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 06:26	DFW 09:50	9%	6%	1.1%	89%
OO 6235 SkyWest	GJT 10:51	DFW 14:03	18%	10%	1.0%	no record
MQ 4014 Envoy	GJT 13:18	DFW 16:35	19%	5%	1.1%	no record
MQ 4001 Envoy	GJT 17:13	DFW 20:29	20%	6%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON