Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 21–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6431 GJT 08:35 → PHX 09:20 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 6491 GJT 18:55 → PHX 19:36 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6431 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 08:35	PHX 09:20	21%	9%	0.9%	92%worse than usual
OO 4996 SkyWest	GJT 11:55	PHX 12:38	22%	11%	0.9%	no record
AA 6491 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	GJT 18:55	PHX 19:36	24%	12%	1.0%	91%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON