tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 4246 at 11:27, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4246 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → GJT 11:27 SLC 12:39 8% 4% 0.8% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → GJT 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 4800 · flown by SkyWest 49m Denver DEN 07:49 → SLC 09:24UA 497 3h 54m 87% 77%
UnitedDetails → GJT 07:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1877 3h 18m Denver DEN 11:40 → SLC 13:13UA 1963 6h 13m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → GJT 06:26 → DFW 09:50AA 6414 · flown by SkyWest 1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:32 → SLC 13:24AA 1871 6h 58m 98% 65%
AmericanDetails → GJT 08:35 → PHX 09:20AA 6431 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Phoenix PHX 10:21 → SLC 13:02AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest 4h 27m 80% 65%
UnitedDetails → GJT 11:19 → DEN 12:45UA 4709 · flown by SkyWest 55m Denver DEN 13:40 → SLC 15:13UA 1840 3h 54m 81% 53%
UnitedDetails → GJT 18:10 → DEN 19:39UA 5755 · flown by SkyWest 1h 26m Denver DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest 4h 34m 81% 51%
UnitedDetails → GJT 15:15 → DEN 16:45UA 4635 · flown by SkyWest 2h 38m Denver DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769 5h 41m 91% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON