tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1945 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1945 Southwest GRR 05:25 BWI 07:17 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 892 Southwest GRR 17:40 BWI 19:32 29% 9% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → GRR 06:07 → ATL 08:11DL 2453 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 6h 54m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → GRR 05:30 → DTW 06:30DL 4885 · flown by Endeavor 3h 45m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 6h 17m 96% 86%
DeltaDetails → GRR 11:34 → MSP 12:14DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → BWI 18:19DL 2565 6h 45m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → GRR 08:00 → DEN 08:54UA 2648 52m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 17m 90% 77%
DeltaDetails → GRR 12:10 → DTW 13:13DL 5473 · flown by Endeavor 1h 52m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 4h 31m 92% 76%
DeltaDetails → GRR 12:51 → ATL 14:52DL 2547 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 17:57 → BWI 20:02DL 2928 7h 11m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → GRR 07:01 → DFW 08:48AA 1561 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:59 → BWI 15:18AA 2669 8h 17m 94% 71%
UnitedDetails → GRR 08:46 → ORD 08:51UA 1113 2h 13m Chicago ORD 11:04 → BWI 13:59UA 8253 5h 13m 94% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → GRR 18:25 → ORD 18:48UA 5516 · flown by SkyWest 53m Chicago ORD 19:41 → BWI 22:40UA 220 4h 15m 39% 15%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON